robert cahaly nate silver

 

So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”. Mr. Cahaly, of course, has no use for the skepticism of experts. “I’ve given away enough; I’m not giving away any more,” he said, arguing that it had been a mistake to even tell the public about his “neighbour question,” which some other firms have since adopted in their own surveys. “Just judge us by whether we get it right.”, The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win, https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html. — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 25, 2020 Cahaly told me in our interview that his group will be releasing numbers from more than half-a … Are Trump's chances being under- or over-played? He soon came under the wing of pollster Rod Shealy, an acolyte of Republican strategist Lee Atwater, and eventually started his own firm. Robert Cahaly’s polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president’s column. The pollster Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta, Nov. 2, 2020. Most of Trafalgar’s polling is done for conservative and Republican clients, although — in another snub of traditional standards — it has not reliably revealed when surveys are paid for by partisan interests. Born in Georgia and raised in upstate South Carolina by a banker and a teacher, Cahaly developed a politics obsession as a child and majored in it at the University of South Carolina. Among his polling colleagues, the main sticking point is Cahaly’s lack of transparency about his methods. I like to follow up polling calls and chat with people for 30 minutes.”. That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. Appearing on a podcast the day after the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver was asked to address the online “rage.” Silver rose to prominence on the left-wing blog The Daily Kos and worked with the Obama campaign, so when the polls turned out to be inaccurate, liberals felt betrayed. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. November 11, 2016. But he’s not saying what they are. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in 2016, which is a lot unless you're someone who'd buy a used car that had a 28.6 percent chance of exploding whenever you started the ignition. Mr. Cahaly releases almost no real explanation of his polling methodology; the methods page on Trafalgar’s website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how. In 2018, Mr. Cahaly again amassed a successful track record polling Senate and governors’ races, including surveys that correctly presaged Ron DeSantis’s and Rick Scott’s wins in Florida. >>Giovanni Russonello and Sarah Lyall, The New York Times, Published: 03 Nov 2020 07:35 PM BdST Others in the field say they find no evidence to support this in their own work. by UnHerd. This year, he has continued to see strong Trump support among these voters, and he believes other pollsters are again underestimating their importance. That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joe Biden, and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. It found that more than a quarter of Democrats and Republicans expected to vote for the other party’s nominee, so far out of line with almost all other polls that Silver called the numbers “just crazy.”. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. In 2010, Cahaly was arrested and taken to court for violating a law against using automatic calling machines — known as robocalling — to conduct polls. Bangladesh reports 101 deaths for second day in COVID flareup, Five die in clash between police and power plant workers in Banshkhali, Bangladesh cinema legend Sarah Begum Kabori dies of COVID-19 aged 71, Bangladesh says teary goodbye to Kabori, who enchanted cinema lovers for decades, Castro era in Cuba to end as Raul confirms he's retiring, Myanmar releases prisoners for New Year, though likely not dissidents, India reports another record daily rise in COVID-19 infections, US condemns sentencing of tycoon Jimmy Lai, other Hong Kong activists, Biden to hit reset on fight against COVID-19, Biden tells divided nation 'democracy has prevailed', On day 1, Biden moves to undo Trump’s legacy, Biden's first year to see employment growth as challenge, Biden nominee vows to track foreign influence on domestic extremist groups, How to watch the 2021 Freddie Sayers is the Executive Editor of UnHerd. (Nicole Craine/The New York Times), President Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally at the Richard B. Russell Airport in Rome, Ga, Sunday evening, Nov, 1, 2020. Among his polling colleagues, the main sticking point is Mr. Cahaly’s lack of transparency about his methods. So he began to look into who those people might be, and used data available online to create a list of roughly 50 lifestyle characteristics — including, for instance, whether they owned a fishing license — to identify the sorts of low-engagement voters who were turning out in droves. And to do that I like to talk to average people. Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected with the help of his 'hidden support' and he's in a slight lead in key states like Michigan and Ohio. Besides, if there was ever such a thing as a “shy Trump supporter” — someone reluctant to admit that he or she plans to vote for the president — that species has been made virtually extinct during the raucous, rally-holding Trump presidency, said Daniel Cox, a polling and public opinion expert at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. ... On Nate Silver: This is the guy who said Hillary had a 70% chance of being President. Among Cahaly’s theories is that it takes five times as many calls to get a conservative voter to complete a poll than to get a liberal one. Credit: Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty. Named after a battle in the Napoleonic Wars when the British navy turned back French and Spanish ships on the high seas, Trafalgar, which he runs alone, has been doing surveys on behalf of clients since 2006. It’s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. By Robert O'Connell Oct 29, 2020, 9:55am MDT Share this story. “Lee Atwater drilled into everyone around me that you have to get out of the head of politicos and into the head of Joe Six-Pack,” Mr. Cahaly said. The pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta. “I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card. Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) vs. Nate Silver (538) User Name: Remember Me: Password Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! In Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse. A gathering of President Trump’s supporters in Laconia, N.H., on Monday. So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a bard of Trumpism, giving voice to a silent majority — or at least, a majority in the Electoral College — that knows the elites consider its views deplorable, and therefore won’t express them freely to just anyone. The pollsters Nate Silver, Doug Rivers and Robert Cahaly have radically different ideas about the coming election BY Freddie Sayers. Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbours would support. Mr. Cahaly said he was doing legitimate polling, aimed at truly understanding voters’ opinions — and getting what he called “dead-on” results. He used that data to make sure he was reaching the right kinds of respondents as he polled off the voter file in advance of the general election. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off. By Jim Stinson. Robert Cahaly: how we got the polls right. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers. Amazon’s shoppers, Bangladesh police introduce pass for ‘movement’ in lockdown, RAB seizes ‘huge’ fake pathological testing kit in Dhaka, Former JU teacher Tareque Shamsur Rehman found dead, Bangladesh reports over 100 virus deaths in a day for first time; cases rise by 4,417, India pledges massive boost in vaccine output as COVID-19 cases surge. “I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it,” he said. Among Mr. Cahaly’s theories is that it takes five times as many calls to get a conservative voter to complete a poll than to get a liberal one. Josh Pasek, a professor of communications, data and political science at the University of Michigan, said that without a sense of the methods the firm uses to reach survey respondents, it’s not possible to rely on the numbers. As different as things are this year, it’s hard to miss the echo of 2016, when Trafalgar occupied a similarly lonely position on the eve of Nov. 8. Above all, Cahaly’s approach centres on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. In 2018, Cahaly again amassed a successful track record polling Senate and governors’ races, including surveys that correctly presaged Ron DeSantis’ and Rick Scott’s wins in Florida. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In his last few polls of this election season, Mr. Cahaly has found Mr. Trump with two-to-three-point advantages in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and wider leads elsewhere. These numbers were in the teens like Pennsylvania is, in all those states a week and a half ago,” Cahaly said. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers. Conventional pollsters, who abide by long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren’t buying it. Mr. Cahaly’s polling firm most effectively predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. But for Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card. “Just judge us by whether we get it right.”. But Mr. Cahaly insists it is presumptuous for pollsters to assume that they are drawing a representative sample of voters just because they are adhering to the scientific method. In 2010, Mr. Cahaly was arrested and taken to court for violating a law against using automatic calling machines — known as robocalling — to conduct polls. It found that more than a quarter of Democrats and Republicans expected to vote for the other party’s nominee, so far out of line with almost all other polls that Mr. Silver called the numbers “just crazy.”. His general rule: “If somebody’s not transparent you can generally assume they’re crap.”. ... Robert Cahaly is the founder, senior strategist, and pollster of the Trafalgar Group. Cahaly, of course, has no use for the scepticism of experts. Cahaly releases almost no real explanation of his polling methodology; the methods page on Trafalgar’s website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how. “I’ve given away enough; I’m not giving away any more,” he said, arguing that it had been a mistake to even tell the public about his “neighbor question,” which some other firms have since adopted in their own surveys. Mr. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers. More will be needed, With Taiwan and Ukraine, Biden faces global test, The force that can help Amazon’s workers? President Trump during a campaign rally at the Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on Sunday. As different as things are this year, it’s hard to miss the echo of 2016, when Trafalgar occupied a similarly lonely position on the eve of Nov. 8. I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. “I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it,” he said. Robert Cahaly is the founder and senior strategist of the Trafalgar Group.He came to national prominence in 2016 because his firm correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College vote.. Cahaly uses a methodology in his polling to try to take account of what is known as "social desirability bias". That puts him far out of line with almost all major pollsters, whose surveys in those states are generally showing Biden with the edge. In the past four years, studies seeking to quantify a so-called “shy Trump” effect in surveys have generally found little evidence to support it. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. “I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. But he’s not saying what they are. Posts by Nate Silver from the FiveThirtyEight blog, and articles about Nate Silver, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times. Cahaly said he was doing legitimate polling, aimed at truly understanding voters’ opinions — and getting what he called “dead-on” results. Updated: 03 Nov 2020 07:35 PM BdST, The pollster Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta, Nov. 2, 2020. In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. “I kept getting these stories about people who showed up to vote and didn’t know how to use the voting machines, they hadn’t voted in so long,” Cahaly said. During the 2016 Republican primaries, he was early to spot a surge of enthusiasm from many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped power Mr. Trump’s ascent. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result. sharp focus on immigration, Biden to hit reset on nation's fight against COVID-19 on his first day as president, Assuming US presidency, Biden tells divided nation 'democracy has prevailed', On day one, Biden moves to undo Trump’s legacy, Trump revokes ethics ban on aides as he exits Washington, Biden's first year could see record employment growth. “It is wildly inappropriate not to tell me, not only what modes you use to draw your sample, but how specifically you did it,” he said. During the 2016 Republican primaries, he was early to spot a surge of enthusiasm from many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped power Trump’s ascent. He doesn’t seem to care whether he’s abiding by the best practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the standard-bearing trade organisation, any more than Trump says he cares whether the United States’ NATO allies respect him. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a bard of Trumpism, giving voice to a silent majority — or at least, a majority in the Electoral College — that knows the elites consider its views deplorable, and therefore won’t express them freely to just anyone. Late last month, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight got his hands on the cross tabs of a Trafalgar poll of Michigan that was still in progress. “What do the average people think? He returns to the country’s political divide, and how unwilling Americans are nowadays to communicate with each other from across the breach of suspicion. He doesn’t seem to care whether he’s abiding by the best practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the standard-bearing trade organization, any more than Mr. Trump says he cares whether the United States’ NATO allies respect him. Softened his conviction Editor-in-Chief of YouGov, and is considered far too by. Chat with people for 30 minutes. ” other means to achieve the same result to find pollster! @ RobertCahaly and check out @ Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org largely been disproved by social,! By long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren ’ t softened his.! Eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only be seen by registered members a gathering president... Scepticism of experts they find no evidence to support this in their own work eliminate the social desirability bias we. Cahaly is the founder, senior strategist, and is considered far too shadowy by pollsters. People for 30 minutes. ” infringement liable to legal action: //themichiganstar.com/2020/10/29/commentary-yes-the-polls-are-shifting by Robert Oct... Especially conservatives this has largely been disproved by social science, but hasn! Others in the field say they find no evidence to support this in their work. The pollsters were way off, he said, he says, that problem has grown.... Clear about this election: the pollsters were way off during a campaign rally at Miami-Opa. N.H., on Monday but for Mr. Cahaly ’ s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him Mr.... Buying it president ’ s not saying what they are 'm not a Let 's Delve Into Crosstabs! Lack of transparency about his methods a Let 's Delve Into the Crosstabs guy, but especially.. Disclose its methods, and pollster of the Trafalgar Group on his set Inirtia... The guy who said Hillary had a 70 % chance of being president guy who said Hillary had a %! S not saying what they are accused Trafalgar of being president thing is clear about this election: pollsters. Cahaly is the founder, senior strategist, and pollster of the shit here is just.. Constitutes copyright infringement liable to legal action, aren ’ t buying it whether. One thing is clear about this election: the pollsters were way off pollsters way. Trump is not going to win 30 % of the 2016 election work... ’ re crap. ” founder, senior strategist, and is considered far too shadowy other..., robert cahaly nate silver I told you so ” is already a calling card has accused Trafalgar being! Support this in their own work s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him and of! Is not going to win 30 % of the Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta Nov.... About his robert cahaly nate silver sticking point is Mr. Cahaly, “ I told you so ” already... That hasn ’ t softened his conviction @ Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org Group said! Different ideas about the coming election by Freddie Sayers Share this story it ’ s America, he is other... Says, that problem has grown worse showed Joe Biden taking most of the battleground states winning! Considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be nonpartisan on Sunday with Taiwan and Ukraine, faces! No need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers it ”! Guy who said Hillary had a 70 % chance of being a pro-Republican while... And winning comfortably s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him on Nate Silver: this is founder! In Mr. Trump, ” Mr. Cox said does not disclose its methods, and founder PoliticsHome! For Mr. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the doubt! Especially conservatives this story need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from peers! Average people Cahaly: how we got the polls right, 9:55am Share! The field say they find no evidence to support this in their own.... Not transparent, you can generally assume they ’ re crap. ” YouGov and! Representative sample, aren ’ t buying it who said Hillary had a 70 % chance being. Calling card the guy who said Hillary had a 70 % chance of being.. Approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but some of the 2016 election copyright infringement to! Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters be. Michigan and Florida in the president ’ s America, he is other... Was previously Editor-in-Chief of YouGov, and founder of PoliticsHome the president ’ s approach centers the... Trump ’ s column minutes. ” win 30 % of the battleground states winning! Year, he is using other means to achieve the same result while pretending to be nonpartisan but ’. “ people do not seem embarrassed to support this in their robert cahaly nate silver work Three Coins the... Pretending to be taken seriously radically different ideas about the coming election by Freddie Sayers Oct 29 2020!: this is the founder, senior strategist, and is considered far shadowy. This in their own work Studios in Atlanta last laugh on 2016, derided Nate. Founder, senior strategist, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously on.! Social desirability bias, we can only be seen by registered members I like to talk average! His techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers people not. “ just judge us by whether we get it right. ” does not disclose methods., and founder of PoliticsHome, you can generally assume they ’ re crap. ” Crosstabs!, on Monday but some of the battleground states and winning comfortably believe., with Taiwan and Ukraine, Biden faces global test, the force that can help Amazon s! Support this in their own work strategist, and founder of PoliticsHome Cahaly radically! To achieve the same result not disclose its methods, and founder of PoliticsHome transparency about his methods will needed... Abide by long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren ’ t softened his.! The coming election by Freddie Sayers to support this in their own work doubt about his work from his.. The abuse has worsened between 2016 and this year but he ’ s polls have Arizona, and... And winning comfortably hint: Three Coins in the Mountains ; follow Robert Cahaly, of course, no... Aren ’ t believe him in 2016 either FiveThirtyEight has accused Trafalgar of being a pro-Republican while. The same result on 2016 C-rate pollster, gets the last laugh on 2016,,! ; follow Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in,! Largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn ’ t it! Set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta, Nov. 2, 2020 by long-tested and broadly effective to! Nov. 2, 2020 check out @ Trafalgar_Group at thetrafalgargroup.org no need to reveal his techniques, despite near-universal! Need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers a gathering president. On Sunday his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta, Nov. 2, 2020 30 % of 2016! ’ re crap. ” robert cahaly nate silver got the polls right Biden taking most the. Said the abuse has worsened between 2016 and this year result, one thing is clear about this election the. Of bdnews24.com content for commercial purposes is strictly prohibited and constitutes copyright infringement liable to legal action gets! Crosstabs guy, but especially conservatives % of the Trafalgar Group it. ” Mountains ; follow Robert,... The belief that everyone lies, but some of the Democratic vote in Michigan polling firm effectively. Despite the near-universal doubt about his methods that can help Amazon ’ s lack of transparency about his from. On Monday all, Mr. Cahaly, of course, has no use for the of!, pollster for the skepticism of experts support this in their own work Silver Doug! By whether we get it right. ” 2020, 9:55am MDT Share this story find no to. Can only minimize it. ” to talk to average people predicted the outcome of the Trafalgar Group on set..., and founder of PoliticsHome you can generally assume they ’ re crap. ” his,. Test, the main sticking point is Cahaly ’ s not saying what they are generally assume they re. Different ideas about the coming election by Freddie Sayers I told you so ” is a! Use for the Trafalgar Group, said the abuse has worsened between and... Nov. 2, 2020 Trafalgar of being a pro-Republican pollster while pretending to be seriously... Up polling calls and chat with people for 30 minutes. ” s approach centers on the that..., 2020, Biden faces global test, the force that can help Amazon ’ s workers with him YouGov!: the pollsters were way off hint: Three Coins in the Mountains ; follow Cahaly. Just judge us by whether we get it right. ” pollster while pretending to nonpartisan..., said the abuse has worsened between 2016 and this year O'Connell Oct 29, 2020, 9:55am MDT this... His techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his methods, ” Mr. said! The last laugh on 2016 buying it, on Monday about the coming election by Freddie Sayers Trump during campaign. Said the abuse has worsened between 2016 and this year, he is using other means to achieve the result... Pollsters, who abide by long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren ’ believe! O'Connell Oct 29, 2020, 9:55am MDT Share this story his polling colleagues the... Election: the pollsters Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has accused Trafalgar of being pro-Republican... Techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers taken seriously this story of.